Haiti’s Data Challenge the Narrative of Doom

Six years of contraction (–13.5% cumulative) have entrenched the idea that Haiti’s economic decline is irreversible. Yet, twice in twenty-five years, the country has grown by 2 to 4% per year. An analysis of the drivers of those periods reveals precise, identifiable, and reproducible conditions.

Réginald Surin
23 Feb 2026 — Lecture : 12 min.
Haiti’s Data Challenge the Narrative of Doom

Des techniciens à pied d'oeuvre dans la construction du canal sur la rivière Massacre

I. Fatalism, and What Feeds It

Since 2019, Haiti has lost 13.5% of its GDP. Six consecutive years of contraction—a record in the country’s economic history. Assassination of the president, dissolution of Parliament, territorial control of logistical corridors by gangs, inflation averaging 24%, tax revenues collapsing to 5.2% of GDP. GDP per capita has returned to its 1990 level. Thirty-five years erased.

This record has produced a predictable effect: the widely shared conviction that Haiti&r

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